Camden’s Property Trust lowered its 2026 same-store revenue midpoint by 50 basis points to 0% after a weaker-than-expected September and the expectation of greater seasonal decline in the fourth quarter, according to the REIT’s executives on Friday’s third-quarter earnings call.

Performance in September, specifically, surprised the company and set the stage for that revision, according to CEO Alex Jessett. 

“It was a greater decline in traffic than we had expected,” Jessett said. “And when we had the decline in traffic, obviously, you have to reduce your prices if you're trying to increase traffic.”

Jessett said concessions, which were “incredibly sticky,” ranged from three weeks in West Palm Beach, Florida, up to two months in Austin, Texas, as merchant builders continued to offer steep discounts.

“The third quarter, at least July and August, were so strong that we would have expected to see others start to dial back their concessions, and they absolutely did not do it,” Jessett said.

Despite the September slowdown, there were positives: Camden expects same-store YOY expense growth of 1.75%, which is 75 bps better than the REIT’s prior midpoint and 125 bps better than beginning-of-year guidance, according to CFO Ben Fraker. 

The company was also “the only S&P 500 multifamily REIT to experience sequential improvement for both new lease rates and blended lease rates each quarter this year, and we were the only one with second- to third-quarter acceleration,” according to Jessett.

Camden saw positive signs into Q4, though high-concession markets weighed on results. The REIT finalized its massive California sale and multiple acquisitions, though the interest rate environment forced it to cancel other deals.

Rent trends

Like many companies in supply heavy markets, Camden saw new leases remain in negative territory in Q3, falling to -2% YOY, according to its Q3 earnings release. In Q2, Camden’s new lease rate came in 130 bps lower at -3.3%.  

In Q3, renewals rose 3.6% YOY, giving the REIT a blended rate of 1%. In Q2, renewals increased 2.8% YOY and blends were -0.2%.

“While renewal growth was in line with our expectations, new lease and blended lease growth were at the low end of our anticipated ranges, likely driven by the persistent concessions that remain in many of our core markets and sub-markets,” Camden Chief Operating Officer Laurie Baker said on the Q3 call.

Camden sent out renewal offers to residents with December and January expirations at an average increase of 4.5%, according to Baker. That isn’t the only positive indicator.

“We have seen signed new leases improve pretty dramatically in October as compared to September, and when we look at our October numbers and we compare them to October of last year, we're seeing really significant improvement,” Jessett said.

Southeast Florida, at 1.6% YOY revenue growth; Atlanta, at 1.5%; Dallas, at 0.8%; and Houston, at 0.6%, were the top markets for Camden in Q3, according to a company Securities & Exchange Commission filing. Concessions have played a role in their performance, according to Baker.

“We're seeing the strongest markets in Atlanta, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Houston,” Baker said. “And so, where those lower concessions are, we're obviously getting a little more pricing power, and we're having the ability to improve our occupancy.”

On the other end of the spectrum were Denver, with a 5% YOY revenue decline; Nashville at -3.1%; Tampa, Florida, at -1.3%; and Orlando, Florida, at -0.7%, according to the SEC filing.

“We still are continuing to see Denver and Nashville as those that have concessions that have been persistent,” Baker said.

Buying and selling

In July, Camden closed its sale of 11 properties with 3,620 apartment homes to a BlackRock-managed vehicle for $1.6 billion, recognizing a gain of $1 billion. The REIT used approximately $0.9 billion to retire balances outstanding under its unsecured revolving credit facility and commercial paper program, according to the Q3 earnings release.

The REIT used $125 million to fund its August property and land acquisitions; $50 million to repurchase shares in August and early September; and $495 million toward the redemption of $500 million of senior notes due in November and to pay down borrowings in its commercial paper program. It had $55 million remaining in cash investment accounts for general corporate purposes, Fraker said on the call.

In Q3, the REIT acquired Camden Brandon, a 296-unit property in Tampa; Camden LoSo, a 343-unit property in Charlotte, North Carolina; and Camden Gulch, a 300-unit property in Nashville, Tennessee, for a combined $305.2 million, according to the release.

Camden acquired a land parcel in Tampa for approximately $18.3 million and sold 2.6 acres of land in Los Angeles for approximately $10.7 million, according to the release.

Camden canceled the purchase of two properties and one land parcel in Q3 after interest rates rose, according to Jessett. “We went back looking for price adjustments, and clearly the sellers were not quite willing to capitulate to what we were looking for,” Jessett said.

The REIT has also decided not to move forward with Nashville and Denver development projects at this time.

“We've been talking about the Denver and Nashville land sites on these calls for probably two years, and every time I was asked about it, I said ‘the math didn't work’ at those points in time,” Jessett said. “We were hoping that we'd find ways to make it so that they did work, and the reality is we just couldn't get there.”

In Q3, Camden repurchased 474,660 common shares at an average price of $105.34 per share for a total of $50 million. Year to date, the REIT repurchased 4,536,826 common shares at an average price of $104.22 per share for a total of $472.8 million. 

“I think the bottom line is that today our shares are the best value that we see on the board in terms of investments,” Camden Executive Chairman of the Board Ric Campo said on the call.

Click here to sign up to receive multifamily and apartment news like this article in your inbox every weekday.