Apartment supply in the Sun Belt continued to weigh on MAA in the fourth quarter of 2025, as same-store revenues fell 0.1% year over year and net operating income dropped 0.5% over the period. 

In all, about two-thirds of MAA’s competitors are offering concessions, which are averaging in the five-week range, according to MAA Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy and Analysis Officer Tim Argo on today’s Q4 earnings call. With lease-ups, that number rose to between eight and 10 weeks.

However, on the earnings call, executives from the Germantown, Tennessee-based REIT pointed to brighter days ahead, expecting the recovery to accelerate this year. They feel that, despite some ominous signals in the broader economy, demand in their region remains strong.

“Looking at our portfolio, rent-to-income ratios have improved, making rents more affordable,” CEO Brad Hill said on the call. “New deliveries are decelerating sharply, down over 60% in 2026 from the peak. The new starts are muted, and have been for nearly three years, down nearly 70% from peak levels.”

The firm expects 340,000 to 350,000 jobs to be created in its markets this year, while apartment completions should be about half that, according to Argo. “That job and completion ratio is certainly improving and in a much better position than we've been in the last few years,” he said.

However, some markets are doing better than others, with supply still an issue in places like Austin, Texas. As they see the climate improving, MAA executives will look toward expansion through development and acquisitions this year. 

Market report

Richmond, Virginia; Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas; and Greenville, South Carolina, led the way for MAA in Q4 with same-store revenue rates up 4.2%, 3% and 2.9% year over year, respectively.

“Many of our mid-tier markets, particularly in Virginia and South Carolina, continue to be outperformers relative to the portfolio,” Argo said. “Charleston, [South Carolina], Greenville, Richmond and the D.C. area markets all demonstrated strong pricing power and strong occupancy in the quarter.” 

Additionally, the REIT is encouraged by what it's seeing in Atlanta and Dallas. “Those are, obviously, our two largest markets,” Argo said. “We continue to see steady progress there, both on the pricing front and the occupancy front. The year-over-year improvement in Q4 pricing for both of those was significant.”

On the other end of the spectrum, Huntsville, Alabama; Austin; San Antonio; and Memphis, Tennessee, posted the lowest same-store revenue rates at -5%, -3.7%, -3.6% and -3.1% year over year, respectively. “Austin continues to be our weakest market in terms of pricing as it continues to work through the 25% of inventory that has been delivered cumulatively over the last four years,” Argo said.

Concessions remain an issue in many of MAA’s markets. Argo said the REIT has seen a “little bit of an increase” in downtown Nashville, Tennessee, and in Raleigh and Charlotte in North Carolina. But in other metros, they’ve gone the opposite way.

“We've seen them drop a little bit in Tampa and some in Houston,” Argo said. “We've seen a lot of good stability in Phoenix, where occupancy is stabilized and we’re not seeing the concession pick up.” 

Growth mode

Eyeing an improving market, MAA will look for compelling acquisition and development opportunities, with an active pipeline of $932 million projects. In October 2025, MAA acquired a land parcel in the Kansas City, Missouri, market adjacent to a recently acquired community and plans to develop additional apartments on the property, according to its earnings report. 

Also in October, it closed on a land parcel in the Phoenix market from a developer who was unable to secure equity for their project after three years of due diligence, according to its earnings call. It has already begun construction on a 280-unit multifamily community. 

In January, MAA closed on a land parcel located in the Northern Virginia market through its pre-purchase development program and plans to build a 287-unit property starting in the second half of 2026, according to the earnings report.

“We continue to grow our development pipeline by leveraging our strong balance sheet and development capabilities to invest early to take advantage of growth opportunities at a time when access to capital is more limited for others,” Hill said.

Overall, MAA plans to begin construction on five to seven new development projects in 2026, which Hill expects will deliver into a much stronger operating environment than the one experienced over this past year. 

“As demand remains robust, new delivery slows and new starts track well below historical levels across our region, our development should continue to generate strong returns and earnings growth with stabilized NOI yields between 6% and 6.5%, well above current market cap rates,” Hill said.

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