Rent Trends

Multifamily rents increased modestly month over month in March for the first time since last summer, according to a report from Yardi Matrix released April 8. However, rent growth in most of Yardi’s top 30 metros remained negative on a year-over-year basis.

Entering the critical spring leasing season, U.S. multifamily advertised rents rose $5 MOM, or 0.3%, in March to $1,750, according to the Santa Barbara, California-based commercial real estate research firm. Lifestyle rents increased 0.3% MOM, while renter-by-necessity rents grew 0.2% for the month.

“Rents typically begin accelerating in March, ahead of peak summer moving activity,” per Yardi’s report. “So this month’s short-term rent gains, which were broadly distributed across markets, suggest early signs of seasonal momentum.”

Rent growth held at 0.1% YOY, marking the weakest March growth on Yardi’s record going back to 2012. By comparison, rents grew an average of 3.6% in March between 2012 and 2019. In the first quarter of 2026, rents rose $4, or 0.2%, from the previous quarter — a positive but weaker-than-normal Q1 performance.

“The continued weakness is not entirely unsurprising, as an ongoing supply glut—particularly across Sun Belt markets—combined with reduced immigration and slower job growth, has created persistent headwinds,” according to Yardi. “Conflict with Iran has introduced an additional drag on economic activity, posing downside risks to growth while adding renewed pressure on inflation.”

The war has shifted expectations toward a prolonged “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment as the Federal Reserve remains focused on containing inflation, according to Yardi. If the conflict persists, elevated energy prices could place additional pressure on household formation and disproportionately impact lower-income households, further limiting renters’ ability to absorb rising housing costs.

Gateway and Midwest markets recorded the highest rent growth in March, led by New York City (4.5% YOY), San Francisco (3.9%), Chicago (3.4%), the Twin Cities (2.5%) and the Kansas City area (2.3%). Rent growth remained negative in high-supply metros, led by Austin, Texas (-4.1% YOY), Denver (-3.5%), Tampa, Florida (-3.4%), Phoenix (-3.2%) and Orlando, Florida (-1.8%).

Meanwhile, advertised rents in single-family build-to-rent properties rose $5 nationally MOM in March to $2,202 — the segment’s best performance since last spring. However, the SFR industry faces federal legislation that could chill the sector: A measure in the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act would force major operators to sell their built-to-rent single-family homes after seven years.

Operators in many markets reported spotty demand in recent months, according to Yardi. The national occupancy rate held at 94.3% in February but declined 0.4% YOY. Only two markets — Atlanta and San Francisco — posted gains, with both seeing a 0.2% YOY uptick, while all others declined. The largest drops were in Tampa (-1.1%), Washington, D.C., and Houston (both -0.9%).

Other disrupting trends include changing demographics and the K-shaped economy, per Yardi. Consumer spending growth is concentrated in the upper third of the income distribution, while lower-income households are struggling with inflation and social spending cuts. Meanwhile, population growth is stagnating due to reduced immigration and a steadily declining birthrate. 

Indeed, stricter immigration policy is lowering demand for apartments, while economic uncertainty is leading many residents to stay in rentals and delay buying a home, according to recent research from Irvine, California-based John Burns Research and Consulting.

“All of these issues will have a disparate impact on demand for commercial properties depending on property segment and region, making it crucial for market players to strategize accordingly,” according to Yardi.

The Federal Trade Commission is seeking public input on a potential rule to “address unfair or deceptive acts or practices relating to advertised rent and other fees and charges in the rental housing industry,” per a March 12 Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

The FTC is focused on the discrepancy between advertised rent and the total amounts renters actually pay once mandatory fees and charges are added. It says a rule on these practices would allow the agency to seek civil penalties against violators and more easily obtain redress for harmed consumers.

The agency is looking for data, evidence, analyses and arguments regarding rental housing fees and charges throughout a lease lifecycle, from application to moveout. Comments must be received by April 13. The call for input follows other efforts from the FTC to crack down on undisclosed fees.

In September 2024, the FTC announced a $48 million settlement with Dallas-based Invitation Homes “for an array of unlawful actions against consumers, including deceiving renters about lease costs [and] charging undisclosed junk fees.”

Following a $23 million settlement with Charleston, South Carolina-based Greystar in December 2025, the FTC told the apartment advertising industry that it was examining the rental housing market for harmful practices. The agency alleges that Greystar, the country’s largest landlord, misled consumers about monthly rent costs by adding hidden fees to advertised prices.

“More than a third of Americans rent their homes. They should be able to see what their monthly costs will be up front so they can properly plan and budget for their families,” the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection staff wrote in a Dec. 8 blog post. 

That same month, the FTC sent letters to 13 U.S. property management software providers, warning them that they may be violating the law if they inhibit rental property managers and owners from conveying accurate pricing when marketing rental housing. 

Now, the agency seeks public comment to determine the need for a rule to prevent unfair or deceptive practices “such as advertising rent that fails to include all mandatory fees or charges, imposing fees and charges without express informed consent, and misleading consumers about the nature and purpose of fees or charges.”

Rental pricing practices that are neither clear nor transparent undermine competition and harm consumers, Christopher Mufarrige, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in the release. “The Trump-Vance FTC is focused on addressing unlawful business conduct that obscures the actual cost of housing and undermines price competition,” he said. 

Consumers seek rental housing that is within their budget, the FTC said in its proposed rule, and the failure to advertise the true total rent and to clearly and conspicuously disclose fees “impairs consumers’ ability to comparison shop for rental housing and to make informed financial decisions, increasing search costs.” It may also weaken the incentives of rental housing providers that do advertise the true total rent.

The proposed rule is a strong signal that the FTC is preparing to move from case‑by‑case enforcement toward a comprehensive federal framework for rental fee transparency, according to a March 16 blog post from law firm Troutman Pepper Locke.

“A likely direction is a ‘total price’ standard in which the most prominent price reflects all mandatory costs to rent a unit, paired with clearer, earlier, and more consolidated disclosure of fee types, purposes, and refundability,” according to the firm. 

“The [Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking’s] focus on property management software and online platforms indicates that technology providers, not just landlords, will be expected to adapt to support these disclosures.”

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By Zillow Rentals

In 2025, Zillow Rentals surveyed over 24,000 renters to uncover the pressures, preferences, and priorities impacting the current rental market. Those results set the foundation for the 2026 Zillow Rentals Consumer Housing Trends Report, which offers landlords, property managers, and marketing teams a comprehensive look at what renters value today, from budgets and affordability to decisions about where and how to live.

Zillow’s research points to a rental market finding balance as renters push for clarity and convenience. After years of rapid swings, growth has slowed, concessions are climbing, and in many markets, affordability is improving for the first time in years.

“Slowing rent growth has finally given incomes a chance to catch up, leading to the first improvement in renter affordability since October 2021,” said Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy.

Renter demographics now span every generation, with Millennials leading and Gen X and Baby Boomers firmly in the mix. For some, renting reflects a tradeoff — feeling behind on ownership, yet stable and free from the responsibilities of upkeep.

As renting evolves from a short-term milestone into a long-term housing solution, priorities have sharpened. Internet speed, pet policies, and community amenities are now essentials for many. Digital tools, once optional, now shape how renters search, tour, and decide. And nearly all renters align on one point: upfront costs and fee transparency are expected.

These shifts point to a market in transition. As Divounguy notes, “Where concessions and rent growth head from here will ultimately depend on what happens next with economic mobility and housing supply.”

What’s certain is that renter expectations are now centered on affordability, transparency, and digital convenience. For rental professionals, this creates an opportunity to build stronger connections, improve retention, and sustain demand across an increasingly diverse renter base.

Here are just a few of the hundreds of insights revealed in the report:

Transparency wins trust
Most renters would prefer to see all costs and fees rolled into a single, predictable number and for this to be clearly disclosed at the beginning. Even with improving affordability and a cooling market, costs remain a top concern for renters, so you can appeal to them by eliminating any financial uncertainty.

Affordability remains the top priority
For all the ways renter preferences evolve, affordability remains the leading influence. Nearly all renters said staying within budget was essential when choosing a home.

In fact, affordability is not only the biggest reason renters move — it’s also the top reason they don’t. Three-quarters of tenured renters who remain in their current home cited rental costs being a “good deal,” while another 69% of the same segment said they simply couldn’t afford to move elsewhere.

No matter how the market shifts, concessions, policies, and amenities all tie back to one question every renter asks: is the price worth it?

Virtual searches rise, but tours still count
More renters feel confident to sign without entering a unit, relying on online visuals to guide their decisions. Yet for almost half of recent renters, private tours and conversations remain the final reassurance before signing.

For recent renters landing in large multifamily buildings (50+ units), digital tools were an even more critical part of the journey. Compared with other segments, they placed greater emphasis on floor plans, virtual tours, and other online features, showing that those seeking larger properties expect a more complete digital experience before they sign.

Get the full report to see what’s changing, what matters most to renters, and how to transform this data into smarter strategies across your portfolio.

For almost 50 years, Amoroso Cos. has developed, operated or invested in close to 8,000 multifamily units.

“My dad and grandfather started it in the late ’70s, and primarily we’re developers,” Amoroso Cos. Chief Operating Officer Jason Amoroso told Multifamily Dive. “We’re third generation. We have a very stable portfolio of assets, ranging from ground-up development all the way to existing hospitality.”

However, even at nearly 50 years old, companies can evolve. “We thought it was a good time for us to reposition some of those assets that have been in a portfolio for 30-plus years, maybe some development deals and some of our hospitality deals, and really go out and take advantage of what we think is an opportunity in the market to buy some assets below replacement costs,” Amoroso said.

To accomplish this, Amoroso announced in January that it was combining with private real estate investment firm Arselle Investments to form a multifamily platform to acquire up to $500 million in properties across major Western U.S. markets over the next two to three years, according to a press release. 

“They [Arselle Investments] were launching their platform where they were looking for operators that were like-minded,” Amoroso said. “Over a year-plus of meetings and chatting, we had the same outlook, especially on some of these markets. They bring their institutional knowledge, which is helpful for a family office.”

Over the course of 2025, the two firms partnered to acquire three multifamily properties totaling approximately $90 million and plan to continue growing the portfolio in areas such as Phoenix, San Diego, Los Angeles and Seattle under their newly formalized venture, Amonte Living, according to the press release.

Here, Amoroso talks with Multifamily Dive about the sale market, the properties he’s targeting and the appeal of California.

This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

MULTIFAMILY DIVE: What makes now a good time to buy?

JASON AMOROSO: From 2020 to 2023, there were a lot of these debt funds and floating rate deals. Now you have a lot of balance-sheet strain because you’re coming up from the property cap rates. As interest rates shot up, cap rates shot up. So now you’re looking at deals that were bought in 2022. You need a $4 to $10 million pay down to resize your loan, and you don’t have it. 

So, sellers have finally decided to move on in many cases?

I think you’re seeing sellers meet the market, and we’ve seen that in the last year. The three deals we bought last year are, on average, like 35% below replacement costs. And two of them were bought below their purchase price.

So I think you’re seeing sellers meet the market now, where they’re looking at their portfolio and saying, ‘Okay, I have to basically reset this whole thing — put in capital and reset the loan or just reset it and place the capital somewhere else.’ 

We’re very active with the brokerage community. We talk to them all the time. The number of BOVS [broker opinion of value] in the last two years has gone through the roof. But there were not a lot of sales. Then all of a sudden, in the middle of last year, you start seeing that they’re sellers now. 

What sort of properties are you seeking as far as age and condition?

We look at every market kind of differently. The coastal markets are a little different than Phoenix. Phoenix had a big supply problem. It’s going through its burn-off, and it took its lumps. When we’re looking at deals in Phoenix, can we find well-located assets that have taken the rent hits? Rents have flattened out or decreased, but the supply is burnt off. 

There is well-documented population growth in these areas and good employment drivers. It’s a three- to five-year plan, maybe a three- to seven-year plan. That 1990s vintage is probably the latest we would go. 

We’re probably focusing on the early 2000s, which is maybe a light value-add, core-plus type strategy where we can come in and maybe stabilize operations and see rent growth. Then at that point, maybe call it year two or three, we come in and do some value add and maybe turn 20% of the units, prove out a strategy and then go back out to market.

How would that strategy differ in the coastal markets?

Los Angeles is a little different. It hasn’t had the same supply problem. LA has the political headwinds, but it still has the economic drivers, as far as employment, and you have a lot of renters by necessity out here. The housing prices are just so high in LA that you keep the renter pool engaged for much longer, and they want to be near the job centers. 

The pockets in LA that we’re picking — Pasadena, West Hollywood, San Fernando Valley — are dense infill areas. We’re not going out to Lancaster and Santa Clarita where there’s land. 

Despite some big companies potentially moving out of California, are you still bullish on the state?

There is population coming in. We’re still probably net negative, to be honest. But at the same time, the people who are moving in are renters. You’re not moving here to buy a house. 

If you’re coming here, you’re likely going to be a renter, and you’re likely coming here for a job or for some reason like that. Maybe you’re here for five years or maybe you’re here for seven years, but you’re renting. So I think having that strong renter base should allow rents to increase.

How does your local expertise help in California?

You can’t just say, California or LA. There are many pockets of LA and so many submarkets. So having the understanding and the market knowledge of the pockets out here and where there’s strong renter demand is really important for us. 

We’re strong believers in California. There is just always going to be a desire for people to come to California. Are they going to live here forever? Maybe not. We’ve become a little bit of a transitory place where people come out here for their first or second job. Then when they get money, they want to buy a house. But they can’t buy a house. The median home prices are too high. 

The student housing rental season for the 2026-2027 academic year is off to a solid start, early data analyzed by Yardi indicates. Its report, released Feb. 19, shows preleasing for the Yardi 200 schools reached 52.3% in January, up nearly 15% from about 45.6% in January 2025.

Although a majority of Yardi 200 schools are pacing ahead of last year, performance varies widely by market and remains closely tied to recent and upcoming supply, per the Santa Barbara, California-based real estate analytics firm.

Rent growth has continued to decelerate sharply, and average rent per bed ticked down year over year in January. That deceleration has been notable across major student housing markets, and rent prices are slumping in many areas in 2026.

Last year, some student housing companies were impacted by the Trump administration’s immigration policies, which muted international student enrollment. Yardi collected fall 2025 total enrollment data for 184 of the Yardi 200 universities that counted 4.9 million students, up 1.8% year over year versus 2.1% growth in fall 2024. 

“The largest enrollment gains were recorded at Kentucky, Texas State, Kennesaw State and

Illinois, while 54 schools saw enrollment declines, led primarily by private institutions and tertiary state schools in the Midwest and West,” according to Yardi.

So far, student leasing activity appears to be pacing comparably to the 2025-2026 academic year: In January, 64 schools, including the Georgia Institute of Technology, the University of Illinois, the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and Auburn University, were ahead by 10% or more compared to last season. 

On the other hand, 28 schools were more than 10% behind last year, including Purdue, Indiana University and the University of Tennessee, all of which have absorbed significant new supply in recent years and have more deliveries on the horizon.

Rent performance also varies by school, though far fewer markets are posting strong growth compared to last year. 

Rent growth has continued the long-term pattern of slowing that started in fall 2023, and rents per bed across the Yardi 200 averaged $915 and have remained flat since the start of the leasing season in October 2025. 

Overall student housing rent prices fell 0.2% YOY in January, compared to 3.7% YOY growth in January 2025 and 6.5% growth in January 2023 and 2024. 

Nearly half of Yardi 200 markets reported year-over-year rent declines in January averaging -4.6%, while markets posting rent increases averaged 3.7% growth. Although 51 schools have seen rent growth accelerate 2026, 135 schools reported lower rent growth compared to January 2025.

In the latest report, Yardi adjusted the batch of schools it analyzes to better align its coverage with the largest concentrations of off-campus student housing. The Yardi 200 now includes nine new universities with 12,816 completed beds — replacing nine with 5,000 beds — for a total count of just over 1 million. 

Newly added schools include Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Jacksonville State, Morgan State, Rice University, Tennessee Tech, Troy University, the University of Alabama–Huntsville, the University of Tampa and the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

In 2025, rents fell for the first time since the 2010 global financial crisis, and the year ended with flat growth. Economists are eyeing a slow increase in prices in 2026 as COVID-era apartment supply continues to burn off.

The multifamily housing sector navigated the late stages of a high-supply cycle in 2025 following years of near-record construction activity from 2020 to 2023, according to the National Apartment Association. Multifamily starts dropped by more than 40% between 2023 and 2025 and are likely to remain weak due to the high cost of materials, persistently high interest rates and concerns about oversupply in the Sun Belt, per data firm PwC. 

The consensus outlook right now points to rent price growth of about 2% in 2026, said housing economist Jay Parsons, citing those waning levels of apartment completions. 

“There’s a wide range of scenarios that could play out, but assuming the economy produces steadier job growth in 2026, I would take the ‘over’ on that,” Parsons said in emailed comments to Multifamily Dive. 

“Even if absorption moderates down from 2025’s peak levels, it won’t take a crazy amount of demand to outpace the dwindling levels of completions — and that should allow occupancy rates to recover enough for operators to burn off some of the concessions and see some pickup in rent growth by year-end 2026.”

Still, with three years of multifamily delivery levels not seen since the mid-1980s, some oversupplied markets are going to need much longer to return to equilibrium than anticipated, according to Jay Lybik, senior director of market research at Continental Properties. 

“The uneven nature of rent growth across markets will continue in 2026 and it looks like once again, the Midwest will most likely be the regional rent growth leader as [its] markets remain the most balanced,” Lybik said in an email.

Supply is tightening amid turbulent macroeconomic conditions that could ding demand, however.

Macro concerns

Currently, about half of consumer spending is driven by the top 10% wealthiest earners, per Moody’s Analytics, and overall consumer confidence weakened for a fifth consecutive month in December as apprehensions about jobs and income deepened, according to The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. In addition, the Trump administration’s immigration policies are slowing rental demand, according to Yardi’s December 2025 National Multifamily Report. 

Yardi Economist Greg Ressler said he expects rents to gradually rise in the year ahead as new supply slows and absorption catches up. Nonetheless, “Lower-income households are under financial stress; spending has been bolstered by [the] top 20% of households,” Ressler said in an email to Multifamily Dive.

Jon Siegel, co-founder and chief investment officer of RailField Partners, previously told Multifamily Dive that while 2026 could bring “positive vibes around the industry,” it’s also possible that “nobody has any money to spend, people are losing their jobs or something else weird happens.”

Similarly, Parsons is eyeing tenants’ conditions: “We know there’ll be lower-than-usual supply in 2026, so it’s really all about demand. Seeing enough demand to push down vacancy will depend on some improvement in job growth and consumer confidence,” Parsons said.

Although rent growth is typically strongest during the first half of the year, it wouldn’t be surprising for that pattern to flip in 2026, according to LeaseLock Chief Economist Greg Willett.

“Shaping that outlook, lots more leases will reach their expiration point during the January through June time frame, but it will be easier for leasing activity to gain year-over-year momentum later in the year,” Willett said.

Rental lift in high-supply markets

LeaseLock’s Willett expects that apartment rents for move-in leases will “gain some momentum” in 2026 amid the slowdown in deliveries, and in particular, the tighter stock “should really help the pricing performances across the Sun Belt and Mountain-Desert region markets that have been adding so much new supply.” 

The Dallas-based lease insurance provider’s base case scenario calls for a pricing increase of about 2%, per Willett. But even in regions where relatively high supply persists, opportunities can still be found at the more granular level, he added.

“While not every market is likely to see rent change get all the way back into positive territory for the metro as a whole, sizable rent improvements are expected in specific neighborhoods where construction activity is coming to an end,” Willett said.

According to CoStar’s Lybik, robust Sun Belt supply will keep rents low for a while.

“I expect that what will be most notable is that rent growth in some Sun Belt markets will continue to lag and not begin recovering as quickly as many forecasts show. This will be the result of the overhang of units being much larger than estimated,” said Lybik.

Lybik said he sees continued positive rent growth trends in San Francisco and Atlanta. “Atlanta finished the fourth quarter still in the red but it improved dramatically during 2025, especially compared to other Sun Belt markets and I see that recovery continuing into 2026.” 

Per PwC, there are many properties still under construction in certain metros such as Orlando, Florida; Austin, Texas; Miami; Nashville; and Phoenix that will likely see a 4% to 5% increase in apartment stock in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, deliveries are dropping in under-supplied markets like New York City and Chicago.

“With these varying dynamics, rent growth may be slow to return to Sun Belt markets as they absorb excess deliveries of the last few years, while rents could continue to grow in Northeastern and Midwest markets where new units will be in short supply,” per PwC.

Concessions to linger

Last year, apartment landlords rode out the highest wave of new supply in a half-century by focusing on retaining tenants and leaning on concessions. Nearly one-quarter of apartments offered rent breaks in Q3 2025, according to Yardi Matrix.

Currently, concessions are at their highest point since the financial crisis, according to Parsons, and it will take a while for them to cycle out.

“We’ll likely see concessions remain abundant into the spring leasing season. If vacancy drops off, we could see some concession burn-off by late spring and into the summer,” Parsons said. “But I doubt all the concessions will fully burn off in one leasing cycle.” 

Since supply remains relatively abundant, multifamily pros should be prepared for some renters to move out when they no longer have price breaks, he said.

“As those concession-rich leases come up for renewal in 2026, we could see more move-outs from deal-chasing renters absent additional discounts — particularly if your advertised new lease rents are cheaper,” Parsons said.

Overall, renting continues to be attractive, according to Yardi’s Ressler: “Core markets aren’t dead; rent growth has recovered and occupancy has stabilized.” In many areas, monthly rent continues to cost less than a mortgage for a comparable unit, according to Zillow. 

That means renters will likely want to stay put, Willett said, much like they did in 2025. Typically, in times of economic uncertainty, people feel safer staying in place rather than moving out.

“Resident retention at lease expiration should remain near record levels, helped by the fact that the premium to buy versus rent housing is still so big,” Willett said. “Look for continued solid rent growth for renewal leases, with the typical price bump likely to come in at 3% or better.”

As those concession-rich leases come up for renewal in 2026, we could see more move-outs from deal-chasing renters absent additional discounts — particularly if your advertised new lease rents are cheaper.

Rent control, RealPage wrinkles

As of last fall, there were more than 100 rent control measures in progress around the country, per the NAA, which tracks and opposes such legislation. Rent control proposals saw elevated activity last year, which is expected to continue in 2026. 

Illinois may allow local rent control if legislation passes, and California is important to keep an eye on, given that “rents in the Bay Area are beginning to heat up again,” Lybik said. 

Indeed, California’s statewide rent control proposal AB 1157 is back in play after stalling last year. The measure would change the existing rent cap and just-cause eviction law, the California Tenant Protection Act, by lowering allowable rent increases, expanding coverage and nixing the law’s scheduled sunset.

Massachusetts’s rent control proposal is another important measure to watch in 2026, Parsons said. The measure would limit annual rent increases to the change in CPI or 5%, whichever is lower, and would apply to most residential rental units.

“If that makes it to the November ballot, it’ll likely freeze up a lot of new investments in rental housing across the state because the proposal is particularly draconian,” Parsons said.

Lawsuits regarding the use of algorithmic rent pricing software like RealPage are continuing to wind their way through the courts, but some were resolved in 2025, with clearer guidelines around the legally compliant use of such tools emerging.

Still, because of the changes to how rent prices are totaled in some cases, some apparent growth could simply be attributed to those legal agreements, which require advertisers to include all compulsory fees in the monthly rent figure. 

“The regulatory push toward all-in pricing that includes any recurring fees is a wild card in near-term rent growth,” Willett said. “Calculated rent increases may be exaggerated simply because of tweaks to what’s included in the base rent structure.”

Lybik said he believes analytics firms are prepared to account for that possibility and doesn’t “think that the recent clarifications on reported rents will skew rental data in the largest markets.”

“I feel confident that the major data firms will be very focused on creating same-store analysis taking these changes into account. These companies already have very deep data sets on historic expenses and fees,” Lybik said.

For years, apartment operators have circled late 2025 and 2026 as a time when new apartment deliveries would begin to slow, allowing them to tamp down on concessions and even increase rents in high-delivery markets.

As expected, new deliveries are falling. At the end of August, 686,000 units were under construction, a 20.2% year-over-year drop, and multifamily developers finished an annualized 503,000 apartments in buildings with five or more units during the month, a 28.7% YOY drop.

“Spring of 2026 is when the bulk of that [supply] is finally in the rear view mirror,” rental housing economist Jay Parsons told Multifamily Dive. “That’s what everyone’s been gunning for. That’s been the light at the end of the tunnel.”

However, even with relief on the delivery front, as the final months of the year approach, the “Survive for ’25” mantra seems to be a distant memory, as economic uncertainty around things like tariffs and jobs has permeated a market still dealing with heavy supply.

For instance, tariffs are expected to pose a heavy drag on the economy and will slow gross domestic product growth to 1.6% in 2026, the Conference Board said earlier in September 2025, noting that its Leading Economic Index fell more in August than in any month since April. 

The jobless rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August, as the number of unemployed people sat at 7.4 million according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the numbers aren’t necessarily increasing, job growth isn’t taking off either.

“We’ve certainly already seen some disruption and the potential to slow further and get down to essentially no job generation,” said Greg Willett, chief economist at Dallas-based lease insurance provider LeaseLock. “So [people are] hesitant to push rents.”

General uncertainty

Apartment rents usually rise over the summer. But that wasn’t the case in 2025, as concessions weighed on price growth. In 2025, rents fell for the first time since the global financial crisis in 2010, according to Parsons. While rents only fell 0.23%, according to RealPage Analytics and Waymaker research, the negative trend created uncertainty.

Other sources showed similar weakening. Apartment List reported the national median rent dropped 0.2% in August to $1,400, as the rental off-season arrived. Additionally, rent prices fell 0.9% through the first eight months of the year compared to the prior-year period.

Willet said he thinks the economy is behind these declines. “What’s driving the demand numbers now is what’s happening in the economy and how consumers are feeling,” Willet said. “Are they going to readjust their spending patterns at all?”

For some apartment owners, issues began showing up earlier in the year. On AvalonBay Communities’ second-quarter earnings call, Chief Operating Officer Sean Breslin noted that conditions around asking rents had been softer than expected in 2025.

“Primarily, our expectation is tied to slightly weaker job growth in the first half of the year than originally anticipated,” he said. “So when you start to look across the footprint … across the first half of the year, we ended up with about 100,000 fewer jobs than originally projected.”

The jobs picture in certain markets could be especially challenging for the renter-by-choice cohort that occupies higher-end multifamily properties, though Breslin noted that he potentially sees things improving on that end later in 2025.

“The composition does not favor higher-end multifamily right now, given the weaker environment for finance, professional services [and] technology [jobs],” Breslin said on the earnings call.

Other management teams are also seeing cracks. In Southern California, COVID-19-era eviction moratoriums and general economic softness related to the national economic picture muted growth for San Mateo-based REIT Essex Property Trust.

“We’ve all experienced a lot of the noise with public policy and the lack of clarity there. And so I do think companies have been more reticent in hiring and investing, which of course impacts our overall growth,” CEO Angela Kleiman said on the REIT’s Q2 earnings call in late July.

A push to keep residents in place

The August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index showed feelings about current job availability declining for the eighth consecutive month. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook, decreased by 1.2 points to 74.8%. Readings below 80 typically signal a recession is coming.

On Tennessee-based REIT MAA’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Brad Hill noted that consumer confidence readings fell after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Apartment managers are reacting to those conditions by focusing on keeping their residents in place.

“All of that plays into, I think, the psychology of the operators in the market, really getting a bit nervous about performance and what performance looks like and really focusing on occupancy,” Hill said.

Camden Property Trust CEO Ric Campo also said the economic picture has made operators wary. The result is that they aren’t pushing new lease rents, as they try to keep current residents in place.

“This uncertainty around everything that’s going on in our economy and politically and all that has caused people to be more cautious and go to a more occupancy-led push,” Campo said on the REIT’s Q2 earnings call in August.

However, Hill said on the Q2 call that he believes landlords should be in a position to push rents in 2026. Campo said he also remains optimistic.

“The consumer itself is healthy,” Campo said in August. “We’ve had 31 months of wage growth and apartment rents have been flat. … It’s not a customer issue as much as it’s a mindset of the operators trying to protect themselves for the back half of the year [when the rental market traditionally slows].”

A seasonal slowdown?

Even if the economy is starting to chip away at apartment demand, it may take a while for the weakness to really materialize. 

The fall and winter months are typically the slowest for the industry as operators back off on rent increases and focus on occupancy — something they’ve already been doing in 2025.

Due to that seasonality, Parsons said he doesn’t really know if apartment executives will have a true read on the market until spring.

“I don’t think we’re really going to have a stronger pulse on the direction of the market until we get to the start of the leasing season in March and April,” Parsons said. “I think that will give us a better handle on how 2026 is going to play out.”

However, LeaseLock’s Willett said he thinks apartment executives will get a clearer picture of the market before then. He argues that the pandemic changed seasonal patterns in the business, with leasing activity split fairly evenly across quarters. 

“In COVID, all that demand got pushed to the back year,” Willett said. “And so we have a different seasonal pattern now, and there actually is a lot of leasing from the fourth quarter of last year where these leases are going to be turning.”

And, right now, he said he doesn’t expect to see those lease rates increasing by much, if they move upward at all. 

“The clients I talk to are doubling down on heads on beds,” Willett said. “You are trying to stay as full as you possibly can. And if that means you have to give up a little bit on pricing power, you’re absolutely going to go that route.”

Rent prices slumped at the end of 2025, wiping out all the gains from the first half of the year, per Yardi Matrix’s national rent report released Jan. 14. Still, the Santa Barbara, California-based real estate data firm said demand remains high, and investors are increasing transaction volume and paying up for multifamily properties.

The average advertised U.S. rent fell $5 to $1,737 in December, down 0.3% from the previous month. Year over year growth dropped 20 basis points to 0%.

The quarterly picture was even weaker as rents declined $16, or 0.9%, to end 2025. That Q4 performance was the weakest showing since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about near-term multifamily demand, according to the report.

Years without rent growth are rare, according to Yardi. The most recent year with no average national advertised rent increase on record was 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and before that, during the recovery from the global financial crisis in 2010. 

Still, rents surged 22% between 2021 and 2022, making some degree of normalization inevitable, according to Yardi.

Single-family build-to-rent advertised rent prices also weakened at the end of 2025, according to Yardi, though occupancy remains strong. The average advertised rent declined by $4 in December to $2,180, while the year-over-year growth rate fell to -1%. 

Overall, occupancy has been a “notable bright spot,” remaining firm as more renters stay in place and fewer transition into homeownership. This resilience also reflects owners’ strategy to prioritize retention through lower renewal increases and concessions. 

Renter behavior remains bifurcated, though, with lifestyle occupancy up 0.2% year over year while renter-by-necessity occupancy declined 0.2%, reflecting heightened price sensitivity among lower-income renters due to inflation and slowing wage growth.

In addition, regional disparities that defined recent years persisted in 2025: Rent growth remained concentrated in coastal markets and the Midwest, while the weakest performance was mostly in the Sun Belt, where elevated new supply continues to weigh on pricing.

Rent growth was strongest in gateway and Midwestern markets, led by New York (5.8% YOY), Chicago (3.6%), the Twin Cities in Minnesota (3.2%), Kansas City, Missouri (2.6%), and San Francisco (1.9%). Meanwhile, rents fell in many Sun Belt and Western metro areas, with Austin, Texas (-5.2%), Phoenix (-4.1%), Denver (-3.9%), Las Vegas (-2.5%) and Portland, Oregon (-2%), the worst performers.

Although record absorption helped offset new deliveries in the first half of the year, it has since moderated, though it remains healthy by historical standards. At the same time, demand has slowed amid flattening job growth and the impact of immigration policy.

In light of these mixed signals, Yardi expects modest rent increases in 2026, a view echoed by other industry experts.

“Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, stronger GDP growth in the fourth quarter points to improving momentum,” according to Yardi. “Greater stability in 2026 could help lift consumer confidence and support a gradual rebound in rental demand.”